COMPREHENSIVE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES DURING THE INTENSE GEOMAGNETIC STORM OF MAY 10, 2024
Abstract
This study provides a comprehensive statistical analysis of ionospheric responses to the geomagnetic storm on May 10, 2024, which was marked by an intense Dst index of -418nT, the most severe in recent decades. Utilizing high-resolution Total Electron Content (TEC) data from 15 Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS) strategically centered around the Teoloyucan Magnetic Observatory, the analysis focused on diurnal variations observed in April and May 2024, capturing the storm’s full impact. Significant deviations in TEC values were observed across all stations, closely aligning with the storm’s onset and peak intensity, clearly illustrating the ionosphere’s response to geomagnetic forcing. A detailed comparison with quiet days revealed pronounced anomalies, particularly during the storm’s most active phases, underscoring the event’s disruptive effects on the ionosphere. The study found that the mean TEC deviation reached approximately 60 TECU across all stations, with a standard deviation of about 10 TECU on the storm day, indicating considerable variability in ionospheric conditions. A refined Pearson correlation analysis showed a sharp decline in correlation coefficients, dropping below 0.25 at the storm’s peak, confirming the direct influence of geomagnetic activity on TEC variations. The p-value analysis provided robust statistical significance, reinforcing that these fluctuations were not random but directly attributable to the geomagnetic storm. Moreover, similar response patterns were observed at the Teoloyucan Geomagnetic Station, which reinforced the consistency and reliability of these findings across different geographic locations. These results deepen our understanding of ionospheric behavior during extreme geomagnetic events and offer valuable insights into the complex interactions between the ionosphere and geomagnetic storms.
Keywords: Geomagnetic Storm; Total Electron Content (TEC); Ionospheric Response; CORS; Pearson Correlation Analysis