MODELING THE SEISMIC CYCLE IN THE MEXICAN SUBDUCTION ZONE: RECENT NUMERICAL ADVANCES
Accurate seismic hazard assessment requires the estimation of realistic future earthquake scenarios based on historical data. A commonly used approach relies on frequency-magnitude relationships derived from the Gutenberg–Richter law, specifically on the a and b parameters. However, due to the limited availability and completeness of seismic records, estimating these parameters remains a significant challenge.
Recent advances in numerical modeling of the seismic cycle have demonstrated that such models can not only help to reproduce observed data and improve our understanding of tectonic processes, but also offer a promising alternative to generate realistic earthquake scenarios.
Seismic cycle modeling, however, poses two major challenges. The first is the complexity of the friction laws, which must capture both dynamic rupture and interseismic healing processes. The second is the multiscale nature of fault slip evolution—ranging from rapid rupture over seconds during an earthquake to slow deformation over years during the interseismic period.
The complex tectonic behavior of the Mexican subduction zone together with its plate interface geometry, makes the modeling of the seismic cycle even more challenging. To address this, we selected the FASTDASH code (Cheng et al., 2025), which enables quasi-dynamic simulations on non-planar faults using the Boundary Element Method (BEM) accelerated by Hierarchical Matrices.
In this work, we present the recently developed numerical strategy for modeling the seismic cycle along the Mexican subduction interface. In particular, we highlight results that capture the observed segmentation of slow slip events (SSEs) in the Guerrero and Oaxaca regions (Cruz-Atienza et al., 2025).
References:
* Cheng, J., Bhat, H. S., Almakari, M., Lecampion, B., & Peruzzo, C. (2025). FASTDASH: An Implementation of 3D Earthquake Cycle Simulation on Complex Fault Systems Using the Boundary Element Method Accelerated by H-matrices. Geophysical Journal International, ggaf230.
* Cruz-Aitenza, V.M., Franco, S., Kostoglodov, V., Tago, J., Kazachkina, E., Real, J., Villafuerte, C., & Plata-Martínez, R. (2025). Slow Slip Events in Mexico: A Historial Perspective, *EarthArXiv*, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5H740.