MANZANILLO 1995 TSUNAMI‘S NUMERICAL SIMULATION FOR HAZARD ASSESSMENT
Tsunamis rank among the most destructive natural hazards for coastal communities, particularly along the Pacific Ring of Fire. The Port of Manzanillo, Mexico—the nation’s largest cargo hub— faces significant tsunami risk due to its tectonic setting and economic importance. As part of a tri-national collaboration (El Salvador, Japan, and Mexico), this study advances tsunami hazard assessment through high-resolution numerical modeling, focusing on the 1995 Mw 8.0 Colima-Jalisco earthquake tsunami.
We simulate the 1995 event using GeoClaw, an open-source solver that implements a robust Finite Volume Method for the shallow water equations. Bathymetric data are sourced from the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO), augmented with localized high-resolution grids. To balance accuracy and computational efficiency, we conduct a systematic analysis to:
1. Identify critical zones requiring high-resolution bathymetry.
2. Quantify the minimum grid resolution needed for reliable inundation forecasts.
Our validated framework will then simulate realistic future tsunami scenarios for Manzanillo, directly informing port resilience strategies and evacuation planning. This work underscores the value of international partnerships in tsunami hazard mitigation.